195
Currency Analyst since 2010

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Jan. 9)

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD retraced 50% of its advance from $1.3295 to $1.3810.

  • The pair recovered a bit from support at $1.3555 and reached Tenkan-sen (red line at $1.3594). Kijun-sen (blue line at $1.3609) is the next resistance. The Bearish Cloud keeps widening.
  • 55- and 100-period MAs are sloping down. The 200-period MA provides resistance at $1.3650 (also the upper Bollinger band).
  • There’s some divergence in MACD and RSI.

Euro may crawl a bit higher before resuming its slide.

Resistance: $1.3607, $1.3615, $1.3650, $1.3676

Support: $1.3571, $1.3555, $1.3525

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - 11:00 GMT - German Industrial Production

EUR - 12:45 GMT – The ECB Minimum Bid Rate

EUR - 13:30 GMT - ECB Press Conference

USD - 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims

GBP/USD

Bullish sentiment has been dominating the market since the very beginning of the week. However the upside remains limited by the $1.6470 resistance for now. Markets are waiting for the BOE policy announcement at 12:00 GMT.

  • Cable holds above the H2 2013 support line
  • Recent GBP correction was less than 38.2% Fibo retracement
  • MACD histogram has recovered into the positive zone
  • 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs are headed upwards
  • However, GBP holds below the H4 Ichimoku and the Dec. 10 high ($1.6470)
  • Break above $1.6470 would open the way to $1.6600.

Support: $1.6425/20, $1.6390/70

Resistance: $1.6470, $1.6500, $1.6600 (local high)

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP - 9:30 GMT – Trade Balance

GBP - 12:00 GMT – BOE Monetary Policy Announcement

USD - 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is consolidating in a tight 105.10/104.65 range since Wednesday.

  • The pair remains supported by the trend line, existing since November 2013
  • Upside remains limited by the top of the bullish Ichimoku
  • MACD histogram keeps rising into the positive zone and remains above the signal line (bullish sign)
  • 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs are headed upwards

The overall short-term picture is bullish, but we need to break above the 105.10 resistance to confirm that view.

Support: 104.65, 104.00/103.90, 103.40

Resistance: 105.10, 105.45 (local high)

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims

USD/CHF

USD/CHF is trading slightly below the 2-month high of 0.9130. Clear bullish trend persists.

  • USD/CHF is trading in the Dec. – Jan. rising channel
  • H4 Ichimoku is strongly bullish
  • However, the pair remains overbought
  • There is a MACD divergence (bearish signal)

We see a chance for a corrective decline to 0.9075. Daily fix below 0.9075 would open the way for a deeper correction. Rise above the local 0.9130 high would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims

AUD/USD 

AUD/USD has been moving down this week.

  • The pair returned to the lower Bollinger band ($0.8890) and even tested levels below this line after reaching high in the $0.9000 area last week (upper Bollinger).
  • 55- and 100-period MAs have melded together and are horizontal. 200-period MA is declining.
  • Ichimoku Cloud is thin: neither bulls, nor bears dominate the market.
  • MACD is below 0 and is falling. RSI is not very far from 30 below which the oversold area begins.

We can see that the pair’s trying to base: there was an attempt to form higher lows. That makes us put some hope in the $0.8850 support area.

Support: $0.8850, $0.8835, $0.8821, $0.8800

Resistance: $0.8925, $.8936, $0.8974, $0.9000

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

AUD - Friday - HIA New Home Sales

USD/CAD

As expected, USD/CAD soared to 1.0845, the highest level since May 2010.

  1. USD/CAD retraced 38.3% of the decline from 2009 to 2011. There’s resistance at 1.0852 (May 2010 high).
  2. All MAs are going up.
  3. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is widening and the lines of the Indicator go up.
  4. Bollinger bands have greatly widened.
  5. RSI (14) is in the overbought area and may form a double top below 74. MACD has reached long-time highs.

Support: 1.0800, 1,0760, 1.0737

Resistance: 1.0850, 1.0885, 1.0900

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

CAD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits

CAD - 13:30 GMT - NHPI

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