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Trader, analyst and instructor with a 6-year experience

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Jan. 15)

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD slid to the fresh weekly lows at $1.3627.

• The pair stays glued to the lower limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. The Cloud turned positive, though it’s still too narrow to consider this a significant development. Euro slipped below Tenkan-sen (red line) and found some support at Kijun-sen (blue line).

• The pair’s still supported by the declining 55-period MA.

• MACD dropped below the signal line. RSI (14) is in the neutral position (47).

Resistance at $1.3690/3700 has strengthened. Still, as long as the pair stays inside the Cloud we can’t rule out the chance that it will test these levels. The pair’s performance depend on the upcoming economic data.

Support: $1.3623, $1.3605, $1.3570

Resistance: $1.3667, $1.3690/3700, $1.3720, $1.3750

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events

EUR - 08:00 GMT – German 2013 GDP

EUR - 10:00 GMT - Trade Balance

USD - 13:30 GMT - PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - 19:00 GMT - Beige Book

GBP/USD

Cable is trading in the middle of the $1.6515/$1.6340 sideways range, forming a triangle-like pattern.

  • Cable remains above the H2 2013 support ($1.6370)
  • The pair remains supported by the 200-period MA  ($1.6380)
  • The pair holds above 38.2% Fibo retracement from the recent rally ($1.6315)
  • MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, but is slightly above the signal line. There are no clear signals for now.
  • The pair is trading below the bearish Ichimoku
  • 55-period MA reversed to the downside

The pair remains well-supported for now. However, a break below the $1.6370 support would open the way to $1.6315 and may be even lower.

Support: $1.6380/70, $1.6350/40, $1.6315

Resistance: $1.6470, $1.6500, $1.6515

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events

GBP – 10:00 GMT – CB Leading Index m/m

USD – 13:30 GMT – PPI

GBP – 14:15 GMT – BOE Gov Carney Speaks

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - 19:00 GMT - Beige Book

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has come under bullish control, recovering to 104.45.

  • Ichimoku: Tenkan reversed to the upside
  • MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but keeps on rising

The near-term picture is clearly bullish. Rise above 104.50 will open the way to 105.40 (local high).

Support: 103.90/104.00, 103.70

Resistance: 104.50, 104.70, 105.00, 105.60

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - 19:00 GMT - Beige Book

USD/CHF

Bulls have taken over the pair since Tuesday. USD/CHF recovered 50% from the recent decline

  • The pair met found strong support at 0.8985
  • MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone
  • USD/CHF approached the top of the H4 Ichimoku (around 0.9075)
  • Potential target now lies at 0.9125

Support: 0.8985, 0.9000

Resistance: 0.9075, 0.9130

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events

CHF – 8:15 GMT – Retail Sales

USD - 13:30 GMT - PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - 19:00 GMT - Beige Book

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has made a steady descent and approached $0.8900.

  • On its way down Aussie breached 200-, 55- and 100-period MAs. These lines remain almost horizontal.
  • Ichimoku Cloud is extremely thin: neither bulls, nor bears dominate the market. Tenkan-sen has turned sharply down.
  • MACD declined approaching 0. RSI is no far from the oversold area (37).

The pair looks likely to test Jan. 10 low at $0.8877 (lower Bollinger band, short-term support). The dip below $0.8850 will be a negative signal.

Support: $0.8775, $0.8750, $0.8821, $0.8800

Resistance: $0.9000, $0.9040, $0.9088

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - 19:00 GMT - Beige Book

AUD - 00:30 GMT - Employment Change

AUD - 00:30 GMT - Unemployment Rate

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has conquered a new high at 1.0977.

  1. All MAs are going up, and the medium term trend remains bullish.
  2. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is widening. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are rising.
  3. The pair’s at the upper Bollinger band.
  4. There’s some divergence at MACD and RSI.

The pair may correct down to 1.0945 or even 1.0915/00 before resuming advance.

Resistance: 1.0990, 1.1005, 1.1050

Support: 1.0945, 1.0915, 1.0900, 1.0858

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

USD - 13:30 GMT - PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PPI

USD - 13:30 GMT - Empire State Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - 19:00 GMT - Beige Book

EUR
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