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Currency Analyst since 2010

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Jan. 16)

 

EUR/USD

• EUR/USD made a swing to the levels below $1.3600, but was supported by the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. The Cloud has recently turned positive, but it’s still too narrow to consider this a significant development. Tenkan-sen (red line) and Kijun-sen (blue line) are above the price and act as resistance.

• The pair’s currently trying to return above the 55-period MA. 100- and 200-period ones represent the next resistance.

• MACD is in the negative territory. RSI (14) is in the neutral position (48).

Watch the data releases. If European data prepares positive surprise, it may trigger a modest recovery to the $1.3665 area, though direction may be changed during American session.

Support: $1.3595, $1.3570, $1.3550

Resistance: $1.3635. $1.3670, $1.3690/3700

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events

EUR - 09:00 GMT – ECB Monthly Bulletin

EUR - 10:00 GMT – CPI, Core CPI, German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core CPI, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 16:10 GMT - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

GBP/USD

Cable is trading under pressure, moving towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally ($1.6315). The $1.6350 support is still holding the sellers.

  • GBP/USD is testing the 200-period MA ($1.6390) and the H2 2013 support ($1.6370) to the downside
  • MACD histogram keeps rising into the negative zone
  • Ichimoku is giving selling signals
  • 55-period MA crossed the 100-period MA to the downside

Support: $1.6350/40, $1.6315, $1.6300

Resistance: $1.6470, $1.6500, $1.6515

 

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core CPI, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 16:10 GMT - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

USD/JPY

USD/JPY extended the upside on Thursday, but faced resistance at 104.90.

  • The pair is testing the short-term resistance line to the upside
  • MACD histogram switched into the positive zone and keeps on rising
  • Ichimoku is also giving bullish signals

Rise above 104.90 will open the way to 105.40 (local high). Bears need to pull the pair below 103.90 to return control over the pair.

Support: 103.90/104.00, 103.70

Resistance:  105.00, 105.40

 

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core CPI, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 16:10 GMT - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

USD/CHF

Bulls have taken over the pair. USD/CHF has recovered a lot of ground for the last 2 days, but faced resistance at 0.9110.

  • MACD is rising in the positive zone (bullish)
  • USD/CHF is trying to break above the Ichimoku top
  • Potential target now lies at 0.9125

Resistance: 0.9130, 0.9108 (local high)

Support: 0.8985, 0.9000

 

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core CPI, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 16:10 GMT - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

CHF - 17:00 GMT - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

AUD/USD

AUD/USD fell sharply and renewed lows since 2010 as the data released today showed contraction in payrolls.

  • The pair breached the short-term support and formed what looks like a bearish flag.
  • The Ichimoku Cloud turned bearish and down, but remains thin. Tenkan and Kijun formed a weak dead cross and the former line is falling, while the latter contributes to resistance in the $0.8950 area.
  • MACD is in the negative territory. RSI is in the oversold area (below 30).

Resistance: $0.8821, $0.8850, $0.8888, $0.8950  

Support: $0.8800, $0.8770, $0.8750, $0.8700

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core CPI, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 16:10 GMT - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

USD/CAD

USD/CAD descended from the multiyear high to the support in the 1.0940 area, our first correction target.

  1. All MAs are going up, and the medium term trend remains bullish.
  2. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is widening. The pair slid below Tenkan-sen. Tenkan and Kijun went sideways.
  3. There’s some divergence at MACD and RSI.

We believe that USD/CAD may go lower before resuming advance. We are watching for 1.0915/00.

Resistance: 1.0956,1.0990, 1.1005, 1.1050

Support: 1.0915, 1.0900, 1.0870

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events

CAD - 13:30 GMT - Foreign Securities Purchases

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core CPI, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 16:10 GMT - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

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