Currency analyst

When the UK will actually leave the EU?

Brexit! Brexit! This portmanteau word must have annoyed you to death, and you probably want to know when this British exit will actually happen. It’s a high time Prime Minister Theresa May and her Cabinet sat down and drafted the plan for Brexit to work. It is almost ten weeks since UK voters opted to leave the European Union, but the ice still didn’t break up.

So why haven't the UK left yet?

In a nutshell, because Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has never been invoked. Until British government formally does that, the UK is doomed to remain its membership in the Union. Article 50 of the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon explains how a member state can withdraw from the EU. According to this article, to leave the Union a country should notify the EU authority of its intention, then, it should negotiate a deal on withdrawal and work out a future relationship with the EU members.

How Brexit process will unfold?

The EU will probably only allow the UK to be the part of the European single market (which means that there won’t be any tariff in trade relationships between the UK and EU members). The main challenge for the Brexit talks will be an immigration issue.

When will Article 50 will be invoked?

The new Prime Minister of the UK Theresa May says that she would be ready to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty as soon as she and her Cabinet plan a sensible and orderly departure. To be precise, it will happen “maybe in January, maybe in February” 2017. Once Article 50 has been invoked, the UK will have two years to negotiate its withdrawal.

Meanwhile, the UK economy managed to withstand the initial shock of the Brexit referendum, although with sacrifices (the value of pound depreciated; the UK lost its top AAA credit rating which means that the cost of lending will grow substantially). We can’t predict what will be the long-term effects of leaving the EU, though. Time will show. 

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