Currency analyst

US presidential elections: the clash of titans

This week the spotlight has shifted from the central banks’ announcements to the US presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (watch at 01:00 GMT –  at 9 pm, local time). It seems that the market and the voters favor tough and well-tempered Hillary rather than unpredictable and explosive Trump.  Voters split 46% for Clinton and 44% for Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 5% and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1%. Everybody will wait with bated breath for the results of this battle, as none of the candidates has situation under control. The main focus of the first debates will be on international affairs, nation’s security, racial and immigration issues. Although economic problems will unlikely be touched, we expect the volatility in financial markets to rise.

Clinton’s concern stems from Trump’s fast-and-loose rhetorical style, which has become devastatingly effective on TV. Republican candidate feels himself quite at home at this sort of events. Meanwhile, hectic Hillary will have to tighten her belt before the race in order not to give a dine account of herself in the debates. Dear Trump’s tweedledum and tweedledee, help Mrs. Clinton to prepare for these 90 minutes of torture! Trump will certainly touch an immigration issue to criticize Democratic intention to increase quota for the Syrian migrants. Mrs. Clinton will have an opportunity to target Mr. Trump’s Achilles heel (he cannot tolerate the idea that people would make fun of him, or think that he’s not smart enough for the presidential post). If Mrs. Clinton makes fun of him in a moderate way, without being shrill and intense, she can beat Mr. Trump. Hillary’s professional background, tough, controlled and calm personality can attract the American audience.

So, we will keep our fingers crossed for Clinton, as Trump’s victory may lead us to uncertainness and tremendous market fluctuations that could provide keen and tough competition for the “Brexit” referendum. According to the prominent financial analysts, the economic consequences of a Trump’s victory could be severe. He could become the spearhead of the worst trade since the Great Depression. Mr. Trump’s economic nationalism is very dangerous. Imagine what will happen to exports if the US built a wall along the southern border and pull out of the trade agreements. The storm is also threatening to the stock market (it may fall by 17 %). Let us hope we will manage to dodge from these bad occurrences.  


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