Currency analyst

Morning Forex outlook

Today, we will keep our eyes wide open not to miss the series of manufacturing releases from the Eurozone (no great changes are expected) and from the North American continent. A pinnacle event of the day is the FPC Meeting Minutes following the manufacturing release from the UK (they are expected to be rather promising to the British pound after the recent depreciation).

GBP is perhaps a main rotator of the forex money machine on Monday morning. There was news that UK prime-minister T. May will trigger Article 50 by the end of March next year. Once she does so, the negotiation process for UK exit from the EU will start. Pound fell from the late US trading levels loosing 56 pips, but then it managed to recoup and reach the 1.293 mark. We will we waiting for manufacturing release later on this Monday and the thorough records and statements from the UK Financial Policy Committee. Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 52.1 in September which would indicate a relevant industry expansion of the UK economy.

AUD didn’t experience any changes on the session. Sunday report from Australian Industry Group indicates Manufacturing Index increased by 2.9 points in September from August 46.9 due to vigorous activity in the food& beverages sub-sector which managed to recover after August contraction. Comments from the leading manufacturers in September shows us a steady improvement in Australian demand and exports in many sectors after August dip. We don’t expect any adjustments of the interest rate at the RBA’s meeting scheduled for this Tuesday. The series of further rate cuts are expected in 2017.

JPY has been more active on last session. We may track a steady upsurge of the USD/JPY currency pair. Now it continues to oscillate around the 101 level, ticking higher to 101.6 and rolling back to 101.5 – 101.3 marks. Sunday Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing releases hardly made any differences to the yen moves. Indexes didn’t show us great changes.

September Over the weekend we also got official China PMIs for September. And here we observe a slight miss for the manufacturing PMI in comparison with the previous month. In general, Chinese economy performs well. According to the estimates of Australian and New Zealand Banking Group, China’s GDP will expand by 6.7% in the third quarter.


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