Currency Analyst since 2010

US dollar: outlook for October 10-14

US dollar index closed above resistance line from December 2016 and rose to 97.00.  America released upbeat ISM manufacturing and services PMIs. According to CME futures, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December rose to 60%.

American labor market figures came mostly below forecast. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 156K in September vs. 171K expected. The unemployment rate increased to 5%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2%. Still, these figures are in line with December rate hike. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in August that the economy needs to create just under 100K jobs a month. So, even though we can see some depreciation of the greenback, the currency should enjoy overall support.

Next week the Fed will release the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday. The market will also watch retail sales and producer prices figures on Friday. In addition, we’ll hear comments from the Fed speakers, including remarks from Yellen on Friday. The last, but not the least is the second US presidential debate on Sunday night. Support of the Republican candidate Donald Trump has considerably declined in the last several days, so it’s interesting how the situation will develop further. All in all, Hillary Clinton’s victory would be regarded as a prerequisite for US economic and financial stability. 

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