Currency Analyst since 2010

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Jan. 27)



EUR/USD is making another attack at $1.3700 on good German Ifo data. There’s 61.8% Fibo retracement at $1.3745. Note though that positive figures have been mostly priced in. MAs are horizontal, while RSI (14) is close to the overbought area. Initial support is provided by the 200-period MA at $1.3670. Kijun-sen and the middle Bollinger band lie in the $1.3627 area.

Resistance: $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3800

Support: $1.3670, $1.3640, $1.3600

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events

EUR - All day - Eurogroup Meetings

EUR - 11:00 GMT - German Buba Monthly Report

USD - 15:00 GMT - New Home Sales

EUR - 18:00 GMT - German Buba President Weidmann Speaks


At the end of the past week traders started selling the pound after the pair had hit a high of $1.6670. Cable found strong support at the January rising trend line ($1.6500 as of writing).  General market sentiment is bullish. Ichimoku Cloud is supportive for the cable, but Tenkan-sen and Kidjun-sen are sidelined for now. MACD histogram is declining, but remains in the positive zone.

Support: $1.6470, $1.6450, $1.6430

Resistance: $1.6535, $1.6590, $1.6670

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 15:00 GMT - New Home Sales


USD/JPY has found support at 101.75 after the last week’s selloff from the levels above 104.00 (2014 resistance). The pair is oversold (RSI at 30), while the negative MACD histogram stopped the growth. The bearish correction could have come to an end. However, both the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud keep on giving bearish signals.

Support: 102.15, 102.00, 101.75, 101.60

Resistance: 102.75/85, 103.00, 103.60

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 15:00 GMT - New Home Sales


USD/CHF found support at $0.8900, but the overall market sentiment remains bearish. We expect the greenback to extend the downside. The pair has become oversold after the Friday’s drop. MACD histogram keeps rising deeper into the negative zone, but the pace of growth slowed down a little. Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish. 55-period MA is about to cross the 100-period MA to the downside.

Support: $0.8900, $0.8800

Resistance: $0.8985,$0.9030, $0.9090, $0.9130, $0.9155

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

USD - 15:00 GMT - New Home Sales


AUD/USD recovered from the multiyear low at $0.8663 to the $0.8740 area. MAs are sloping down. The horizontal Kijun-sen and the middle Bollinger band are at $0.8774. The Ichimoku Cloud represents a hurdle at $0.8825. It doesn’t look like the pair has much of corrective potential at this point.

Resistance: $0.8760, $0.8775, $0.8825

Support: $0.8663, $0.8633, $0.8600, $0.8550

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events

USD - 15:00 GMT - New Home Sales

AUD - 23:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

AUD - 00:30 GMT - NAB Business Confidence (Tuesday)


USD/CAD is correcting down from the recent highs in the 1.1170 area. MAs keep rising, so the medium-term trend remains bullish, though the Cloud has dramatically contracted. Tenkan-sen (red line) is going down. MACD is in the positive territory, but declining. RSI is in the neutral state. There may be a deeper correction.

Resistance: 1.1100, 1.1175, 1.1230

Support: 1.1018, 1.0990, 1.0950

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events

USD - 15:00 GMT - New Home Sales

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