AUD/USD remains below $1.0400

AUD/USD returned to $1.0340 after having touched $1.0370 earlier in the day. Aussie failed to rebound above 38.2% Fibonacci from the recent drop on negative Chinese figures. Tomorrow watch the Chinese manufacturing PMI.

We will remain bearish below the $1.0400 resistance. The next targets lie at $1.0215/05 and $1.0115. Rebound above $1.0400 would open the way for further recovery to $1.0500. 

Analysts at NAB emphasize that is no barrier to further RBA monetary policy easing in months ahead. They expect a rate cut in June, but also don’t rule it out in May. Commerzbank targets $0.9845 (200-week MA and the 2011-2013 support) in a longer term.

 Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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