EUR/USD: what do the banks say?

We have searched for the fresh EUR/USD recommendations from the major banks and here’s what we’ve found.



SEB Bank: Short-term the minor consolidation since Friday afternoon is seen soon breaking down to a fresh low in the $1.3440/50 area.


Nordea: Keep EUR/USD long (from $1.3450), next support area $1.3380/1.3450. Stop loss is at $1.3340, while take profit is at $1.3850. The ECB won’t cut rates, reasons plentiful: the labor market has turned the corner, the credit impulse turned up and the lending survey tone positive, the PMIs and other sentiment/survey data have improved, market-based inflation expectations are rocks solid even with the softer headline CPI.

Credit Agricole: EUR will remain under pressure this week as the negative influence of ECB policy expectations re-exerts themselves. Target $1.33 over the next few weeks.Though we do not expect any policy change, we do not rule out stronger forward guidance, or possibly even an explicit statement of readiness to lower rates further.


JP Morgan: The ongoing straight attack and break below the support at $1.3507/06 to challenge $1.3436 which upon its break would open the way for a deeper decline. Only above $1.3506 would temporally keep the door open for another corrective leg up to $1.3802.


Barclays Capital: Consider selling EUR/USD as a tactical trade to position for the ECB meeting this week. Target is at $1.3400. The ECB will cut rates either in February or in March. Euro will fall anyway.


Danske Bank: We would not be surprised to see such a move and continue to see downward pressure on both EUR/USD that fell below 1.35 on Friday and EUR/GBP the next couple of days


Commerzbank: It’s likely to sell off further towards initially the 200-day MA at $1.3376. We have a minor support en route at $1.3423, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from November. Very near term we would allow for a small near term rebound, however intraday rallies should now find resistance at 1.3525/55. Above $1.3640 the key resistance is the $1.3740/46 recent high and Fibo retracement.


TD Securities: EUR/USD short-term view is bearish, with a potential target of $1.3174 achievable.





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