Credit Agricole: scenarios for NFP and USD
NFP below 150K (fear of American economic slowdown): Demand for safe havens will increase. USD/JPY will test 200-day MA in the 100.00 area. European currencies will outperform.
NFP above 210K (increase in chances of further Fed’s tapering): USD will get a boost versus all of its counterparts. Currencies of countries with big current account deficit will suffer the most. Best trades will be long USD against JPY, GBP and NZD.
The reading in the middle – not too high and not too low – will be the best outcome for the risk sentiment.