Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD: daily update

AUD/USD opened with a gap down on Monday. Today Aussie found support around its 1 1/2-year low, and now the bulls are trying to push the pair above Friday’s close ($0.9652) and yesterday’s high ($0.9665). Australian stocks rose as Australian investors became more active after foreign investors sold out because of Australian dollar risk.

Daily RSI is in the oversold area. There’s scope for some recovery on H4. The next resistance is at $0.9740/50 (50-month MA, May 24 high), $0.9778 (May 23 high) and $0.9840. The main obstacle on the upside is the 200-week MA at $0.9880 and as long as the pair stays below this level, the outlook will remain bearish. Aussie’s upside is limited due to concerns about China’s economic growth. Moreover, the greenback may strengthen on the expectations of the Fed’s tapering bond purchases. Support is at $0.9593 (May 23 low) and $0.9589 (June 1, 2012, low).

There’s no data in Australian calendar today. All eyes are on Thursday’s releases (Private Capital Expenditure, Building Permits), which will either confirm or reduce the possibility of further easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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