Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY and NFP scenarios

USD/JPY rose yesterday by about 80 pips, but met resistance around the 55-day MA at 103.16.

According to BK Asset Management, the Fed non-farm payrolls report to show a minimum job growth of 115K, otherwise the credibility and the validity of taper will come into question.

A reading is below 100K will make USD/JPY slide towards 102.00. Support is at 102.50, 102.18 and 101.95. If reading exceeds 125K the pair should add to the upside. Resistance is at 103.45, 103.80 and 104.00. The consensus forecast is 151K.  

Commerzbank says that their baseline technical scenario is that USD/JPY may dip up to 102.40 and then push through 103.15 targeting 104.45 en route to the more important 105.45/50 recent high.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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