Currency Analyst since 2010

Societe Generale: technicals for majors

EUR/USD: The pair has given a break above the multiyear trend line resistance and is evolving within a short term bullish channel. The pair is poised to inch higher towards $1.40/1.4040 with next resistance at $1.4260, 76.4% retracement from 2011 high. For the day, immediate resistance for the pair is seen at $1.3987/1.40. 

GBP/USD: The pair is closing in on the upper limit of a multi-year range of $1.6750/1.70. With the monthly indicator at resistance, the next leg of uptrend could be complex and volatile and will face stiff resistance at $1.7000, 2009 highs. For the day, with hourly RSI at resistance $1.6692 will limit any short term pullback. 

USD/JPY: The pair achieved initial target of 103.67 after breaching above one month range. With weekly RSI at multiyear support line, a confirmed break above 103.67, the 61.8% retracement from January high will take the pair towards 105.60. For the day, the pair will drift lower with immediate support at 102.33/18.

USD/CHF: The pair violated the lower limit of the channel drawn from July 2012 highs. The weekly momentum indicator RSI is also breaking below a multiyear graphical support indicating further correction.0.8680 and more importantly 0.8520 will remain key support levels. For the day, the pair will drift lower towards 0.8680.

USD/CAD: The pair achieved our target of 1.1235, the multiyear trend line and the upper limit of a monthly channel and has started to consolidate. However, with weekly RSI near major support, the current pullback should be short-lived and floored at 1.08 levels. For the day, the pair will drift lower with immediate support at 1.1031. 

AUD/USD: The pair took support at the multiyear channel limit of $0.8670 and started to evolve within a bullish channel. With weekly stochastic diverging, a decisive break above $0.9090 will confirm an inverted H&S pattern and take the pair higher towards $0.9210/67. For the day, the pair will consolidate within the limits of $0.8960 and $0.9090.

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