Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY with Mark Jensen

By MarK Jensen, FBS analyst

USD/JPY met resistance at 103.75, around the resistance line from December highs. Yen rose as safe haven ahead of the referendum in Crimea due on Sunday: the region may quit Ukraine and join Russia. US Secretary John Kerry said yesterday that “if there is no sign of any capacity to be able to move forward and resolve this issue, there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday in Europe and here with respect to the options that are available to us.” This strengthens risk aversion and is negative for USD/JPY.

The pair breached the 100-day MA at 102.10 and is now vulnerable for decline towards 100.75 and lower. The main support is at 101.40/20 (support line). Daily MACD is declining. At H4 the pair’s oversold, so there’s a chance of some rebound. We’ll stay bearish, however, as long as USD/JPY is below 103.10 (place stops above this area) and will try to enter shorts around 102.50.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

To contact the writer of this story: Mark Jensen, analytics@fxbazooka.com



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