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Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD: neat-term prospects

AUD/USD renewed minimum at $0.9528 yesterday. On the upside, an attempt to recover from that low was capped in the $0.9700 area (200-hour MA, 50-period MA on H4, bottom of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud on H4).

On the daily chart there was a hammer-like candle formed yesterday. Today we see Aussie swinging around the opening level – investors are waiting for US data (12:30 GMT).

There’s some support in the $0.9595/80 area. MACD divergence on H4 allows correction up. Credit Agricole thinks that the Reserve bank of Australia will remain on hold next week. The specialists point out that a lot of bad news is already priced in. In their view, AUD/USD is oversold relative to its short term fair value and may recover. Resistance is at $0.9700, $0.9778 and $0.9840.

Commerzbank notes that the daily RSI hasn’t confirmed the 0.9528 low charted yesterday. The bank expects some near-term consolidation ahead of further losses.

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

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