Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY and its sideways moves

By Mark Jensen

USD/JPY dipped to 101.70, but the returned to this week’s opening levels in the 102.25 area.

Analysts at UBS argue that dollar’s pullback presents an attractive buying opportunity ahead of many important events which will take place in April. These events are the release of tankan surveys on April 1, US Non-Farm Payrolls on April 4, 2 meeting of the Bank of Japan – on April 8 and April 30.

The pair remains within the triangle on the daily chart and below the Ichimoku Cloud at 102.50 and the 55-day MA just above it. USD/JPY keeps trading sideways. According to Commerzbank, “the intraday signals are turning more positive and it is looking less likely that we will see a slide towards February low at 100.75 and the 200-day MA at 100.57”. Japan will release inflation data tonight (23:30 GMT), but UniCredit doesn’t expect this release to make much of an impact on USD/JPY, even if there’s a slight increase in inflation numbers.

Investors still have more money on the yen falling than rising. Still, many analysts and investors don’t see yen resuming its slide in the short term. Barclays says slow growth in the US and concerns about emerging-market economies should slow the dollar’s rise against the Japanese currency. Traders at BNP Paribas say that they are selling USD/JPY when it trades between 103 and 105 and buying when it trades below 102.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

To contact the writer of this story: Mark Jensen at analytics@fxbazooka.com

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