EUR/USD: daily update
EUR/USD has managed to recover to $1.3688 and downward momentum declined, but still the bulls remain quite indecisive.
Above $1.3685 we’ll see a double bottom pattern, and euro will get chance to rise to the next important resistance at $1.3740 (100-day MA, this week’s highs). Support lies at $1.3630 (200-day MA), $1.3600 and $1.3584 (Feb. 13 low). However, the hourly MAs block the way, so euro needs drivers from US session (see the economic calendar) to overcome these obstacles.
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
Still, according to Commerzbank, as long as EUR/USD is trading below $1.3740/70, the bears are in charge. A break above this level would only delay the negative scenario and the pair will get chance to retrace to $1.3860, but not higher than to $1.3920. In its main scenario the bank expects euro to decline to $1.3476 (2014 low) on the way to 2012-2014 uptrend at $1.3397. Credit Suisse recommends going short at $1.3770, with a stop above $1.3795, and a target at $1.3520.