EUR/USD returned to $1.3550 after dipping to $1.3512 earlier today as data from the euro area were positive (industrial production added 0.8%), while US retail sales were lower than expected, though the readings for the previous month were revised up. American jobless claims increased to 317K last week versus 310K expected.
The bears are still seen to dominate the market. This week we may see a series of lower highs and lows. The pair has spent the last 48 hours in a narrow range. Support is at $1.3510 and $1.3476 (2014 low). Resistance is at $1.3580/90 and $1.3640.
Here’s what Lloyds Bank says: “While the speculative market remains inclined to favor the EUR downside, the danger of a significant EUR rally is increasing in the absence of further news, as downside momentum fades. For the moment, we remain neutral, but short term risks may be turning towards the upside.”
Some analysts note that’s it’s been more profitable to trade euro vs. Australian and New Zealand’s dollar these days, because the difference in yields between these currencies is bigger than the one between euro and the greenback.
Chart. H4 EUR/USD