Currency Analyst since 2010

Scenarios for EUR/USD

EUR/USD soared yesterday reaching 38.2% Fibo and then pausing ahead of the psychological $1.3700 mark. The pair closed above the 200-day MA ($1.3670) on Monday. On the upside there's a critical level is at $1.3745 (50% Fibo, daily Ichimoku Cloud) and a breach of $1.3700 will bring us there.

Analysts at Commerzbank and SEB Bank think that this short-term rally is just a correction and expect the market to fail at $1.3700/45.

Analysts at TD Securities note, however, that although trend momentum studies do not show a lot of directional intent on the daily and weekly charts at the moment, a sustained rise through the raft of resistance in the $1.3650/00 area would suggest more and more sustained strength in the euro moving forward. In their view, the risk of more volatility through the remainder of the holiday-shortened week suggests that it would be wrong to dismiss the risk of a return to the $1.3750/1.38 area if the EUR can maintain its current gains through the close of the week.

There may probably be some consolidation in EUR/USD as traders await US labor market data and Mario Draghi’s press conference. The reason says that Draghi will make dovish comments, but euro will shoot up if Draghi sounds optimistic.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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