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Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: near-term outlook

By Mark Jensen

USD/JPY slid by 30 pips yesterday once again closing below the 200-day MA (101.75). After diving to the 101.40 area, the pair has once again returned to this moving average.

The market players are waiting for the FOMC minutes for some hints from the Fed. Traders will be waiting for some hawkish signs. Such signs are not very likely to come from the Chair Janet Yellen, but it will help USD if other FOMC members sound more optimistic about US economy. If the minutes shows that many of them are ready to move toward policy normalization sooner than later, USD/JPY may a move towards 102.00 (lower border of daily Ichimoku).

Note, however, that analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair’s under bearish pressure as long as it’s trading below last week’s high at 102.26, while the key resistance is at 102.67 (2014 downtrend line). In their view, attention should be on support at 101.23 (June low) and 101.07/100.75 (55-week MA, 2014 low).

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

JPY
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