Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD is waiting for drivers (video)

All in all, the pair stayed in the $0.9340/9450 range. Although the level of $0.9500 was touched, the bears didn’t let the bulls to stay so high. On Thursday Australian dollar formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow – Australian employment data were mostly negative with the unemployment rate increasing to the highest level since July 2003. In addition, trade surplus of China – Australia’s main trading partner – was lower than expected.

There’s not much to say about the technical picture. The pair’s consolidating awaiting drivers. Support is at $0.9340, $0.9265 and $0.9200, while resistance is at $0.9440, $0.9470 and $0.9500.

From the fundamental point of view, there are AUD-negative factors like that fact that it’s already very expensive and potential dovishness of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and AUD-positive factors, primarily higher Australian yields in comparison to the US yields. All this makes us look from neutral to bearish on the pair. Note that since the strong US NFP data failed to make US Treasury yields and the US dollar surge, the situation probably won’t change significantly this week. That’s the reason to be more neutral on AUD/USD.

Next week pay attention to the RBA meeting minutes due on Tuesday and a bunch of Chinese data on Wednesday. During the whole week there will be a lot of important data releases in the US.

Watch the other related videos: 

EUR/USD: fight for decline (video) 

GBP/USD: surprising resilience (video)

USD/JPY targets 100.80 (video)

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