Currency Analyst since 2010

EUR/USD: major banks are bearish

EUR/USD found some support in the $1.3520 area after its fall in the first part of the week.

Analysts at SEB Bank point out that in the absence of traces of any serious buying, the move will continue lower . Medium-term players should be aware of the importance of the yearly low, printed at the beginning of February at $1.3477. Resistance is at $1.3540/45.

Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the pair’s decline isn’t fully supported by the increase in the US yields, but 2-year real rate differentials have moved against EUR/USD over the past several days on the back of a pullback in US inflation expectations. The specialists suspect that the pair will move sideways for the moment, but a break below $1.3503 (June 5 low) will increase bearish momentum and drive euro lower.

Analysts at Commerzbank suggest that any rebounds are likely to terminate around $1.3565. The 2012-2014 uptrend at $1.3511 and the recent low at $1.3503 represent the key break down point to the 200-week MA at $1.3427 and beyond to November 2013 low at $1.3295.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD


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