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Goldman Sachs: fresh FX forecasts

Goldman Sachs has just released fresh currency forecasts. 

Key points:

  • Goldman remains strongly bullish on USD. Interest rate differentials, change of the US oil balance and demand for safe currencies will push the USD dollar much higher.
  • ECB pulled EUR down by easing policy. 3-month EUR/USD foreast was revsied down from 1.38 tо 1.35, while 6- and 12-month forecasts were left unchanged. 
  • USD/JPY will push higher in autumn. The Fed will end QE in October, while the BOJ will have to increase monetary stimulus on the back of slowing inflation;
  • Dovish regulators will push CAD and AUD to the downside;
  • GBP will grow on the back of the hawkish BOE. GBP/USD forecasts revised up to 1.73, 1.74 and 1.73 in 3, 6 and 12-months versus the prior 1.68, 1.69 and 1.65. EUR/GBP will trade at 0.78, 0.77 and 0.75 in 3, 6 and 12-months. 

Source: Goldman Sachs

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