Trading plan for August 1
Main events to watch on August 1 (Friday):
AUD: Chinese Manufacturing PMI (01:00 GMT), Australian PPI (01:30 GMT), Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (01:45 GMT)
JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks (03:00 GMT)
GBP: Manufacturing PMI (08:30 GMT)
USD: Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (12:30 GMT), ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT)
Friday will be a volatile day of the volatile week. The FOMC meeting came and went. Some experts say that the Fed was hawkish; some argue that it wasn’t hawkish enough. The market was moved yesterday more by the higher-than-expected GDP than by the Fed’s statement. The focus will now be on American non-farm payrolls (forecast: +230K; the unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 6.1%). ADP employment report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in private payrolls in July, though the reading still came above 200K. The yields in the US rose. Good gains in NFP are needed to maintain USD strength.
We think that selling currencies on the increases versus USD is the best strategy. Resistance for EUR/USD lies at $1.3420, while resistance for GBP/USD is at $1.6925 and for AUD/USD – at $0.9330 and $0.9360. USD/JPY will be supported at 102.45 and 102.05. Keep in mind that there are usually price swings and spikes on NFP.