SocGen: EUR will fall in any case
Analysts at Societe Generale think that taking into account the facts that the euro zone’s inflation hasn’t bottomed yet, German factory orders contracted by more than 3% and Russia sanctions start to bite, even if the ECB’s President Mario Draghi sounds less dovish tomorrow, it won’t do much to stop EUR/USD from testing the November 2013 low of $1.3296. And with all the risks the odds of Draghi sounding less dovish are low.
Analysts at Standard Chartered think that Draghi is likely to keep alive the potential for large-scale asset purchases (QE) should they be required.
Credit Agricole says that although elevated speculative short positioning is keeping position squaring-related upside risk high, they prefer selling EUR/USD on the rallies.