Currency Analyst since 2010

Gold: not a bright outlook

According to Bloomberg survey, 18 analysts expect gold prices to fall next week, 14 are bullish and 4 neutral – the proportion of bears is the largest since May 17. The agency also reports that the metal’s 60-day historical volatility reached 28.9 % yesterday, the highest since December 2011.

As the reason of bearish outlook many specialists cite the fact that India, the biggest gold buyer, raised gold import tax. In addition, investors reduced holdings in ETPs (exchange-traded products) for an unprecedented 17th consecutive week. Gold was also affected by the speculation the Federal Reserve will curb stimulus (watch the meeting on June 19).

XAU/USD has been consolidating since the middle of April within a kind of a triangle. Resistance lies at $1,395 and $1,412. Support is at $1,365 and $1,355. Analysts at MIG bank think that in the medium term gold price may decline to $1,287.

Chart. H4 XAU/USD

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