Currency Analyst since 2010

Societe Generale: forecasts for FX majors

  By Societe Generale

EUR/USD: The pair confirmed H&S pattern and broke below wedge lower limit. The pair has achieved target of 1.3210. Daily indicator sustains above support, however pullback should be capped at 1.3394. The pair is more likely to continue the down move towards 1.30.

GBP/USD: The pair has broken below monthly channel limit. Monthly RSI has retraced from a resistance indicating possibility of a much deeper correction. The pair is poised to face further down move towards 1.6280/50 with intermediate support at 1.6470. 1.6743 should limit upside.

USD/JPY: The pair has achieved initial target of 104.20/104.36. Daily channel limit at 103.22/03 is an immediate support while 101.22/12 remains a key level. The pair is poised to continue up move towards 105.60.

USD/CHF: The pair has achieved initial target of 0.9120/34 after confirming an inverted H&S. Daily indicator is now diverging and the pair is approaching a key resistance 0.9185/0.92. Short term downside, if any, should be contained at 0.90.

USD/CAD: The pair bounced from weekly channel since 2012 at 1.0630/10 and has given a break above a descending channel limit indicating end of correction. With indicators taking support at graphical levels, the pair is poised for further up move towards 1.1028/57 and 1.1125. 

EUR/GBP: The pair is undergoing a multiyear downtrend and is poised to drift lower towards 2012 lows at 0.7754/0.77. Monthly indicator is approaching support highlighting 0.7754/0.77 as an important level and a corrective rebound is likely once the target is achieved.

AUD/USD: The pair has retraced after testing the multi month channel at 0.9500/35 and has confirmed a H&S. With weekly indicator rolling over from dual graphical resistance, it is poised to drift lower towards 0.9203/0.9180. 0.9465 remains a key resistance level.

NZD/USD: The pair pierced below monthly trend line support of 0.8350, but has recovered above this level. Daily indicator still sustains the graphical floor since last year indicating possibility of a recovery. The pair is more likely to show a corrective rebound towards $0.8430. 

GBP/AUD: The pair is approaching towards the lower part of a sideways consolidation since April at 1.77/1.76 and is also testing the lower limit of a descending channel. Daily stochastic is at a graphical floor indicating 1.77/1.76 should hold and a recovery is more likely towards 1.7890 with next resistance at channel upper limit, 1.8060.


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