FBS trading plan for Sept. 9
On Monday EUR/USD has been trading flat. Data from the euro area was mixed. The single currency is supported by higher EUR/GBP. Releases due tomorrow aren’t very important, and the pair may continue lacking drivers. Resistance is at $1.2955 and $1.3000. Support is at $1.2920, $1.2900 and $1.2850. Keep an eye on the news: Fitch says that ECB’s actions will help to restore economic growth and inflation. ECB’s representative said that more than one ECB member voted against ABS plan.
GBP/USD opened the week with a huge gap, testing a 10-month low of $1.6100. The British currency was driven down by the Scottish Independence woes: the recent poll showed 51% is ready to support the Scotland’s secession. The cable is strongly oversold and seeks for the bullish correction. We expect the $1.6300 mark (38.2% Fibonacci) to limit the recovery in the current conditions, so there is a good chance to sell on rallies. Next support is seen at $1.6080. Increased geopolitical risks will likely pull the cable to $1.6000 in a wake of the referendum.
USD/JPY failed to fix above the January highs of 105.70 on Friday: weak US NFP ruined the bulls’ holiday. However, the pair still holds in rising channel formed in July. We hold a Buy Stop order from 105.70 with a target of 106.40 (200-month MA) and a stop at 105.40. Late on Monday watch the BOJ meeting minutes.
AUD/USD met resistance in the psychological $0.9400 area last week. Here’s the line connecting 2 July highs. The close below $0.9340 (100-day MA) on Monday will confirm an interim top. Traders ignored positive news from Australia and China. On the downside we may see $0.9300 and $0.9262 (Sep. 3 low). Resistance is at $0.9400 and $0.9415.
Events to watch on Tuesday (Sept. 9)
AUD: NAB Business Confidence, Home Loans
GBP: BOE Governor Carney Speaks, Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, NIESR GDP Estimate
CAD: Housing Starts