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FBS: trading plan for September 11

Trade ideas

EUR/USD recovered from the multi-month low of $1.2850 on Wednesday, but was capped at $1.2960. We remain bearish for the pair and recommend selling the bullish moves. If bulls break above $1.2960, the correction will likely extend to $1.3050 – this is the upper border of the former descending channel. On Thursday the ECB will release its Monthly Bulletin (8:00 GMT). At 19:00 GMT the ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a speech at the Financial Forum 2014 in Milano.

GBP/USD has also regained some ground on Wednesday, facing resistance at $1.6150. A fix above here will open the way to the $1.6300 mark. Technically, this very likely to happen: look at the open bearish gap (Monday) and the long-legged doji candle (Tuesday). However, we still stand on the “sell-on-rallies” viewpoint: the next bearish target lies at $1.6000.

USD/JPY pushed to 106.80 on Wednesday. The medium-term picture remains bullish with the 110 mark on the horizon, but the market is strongly overbought and needs to pause. This view is supported by a reversal “hanging man” candlestick formed on the H4 chart. Support is seen at 106.00 and 105.70.

Don’t miss the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy announcement at 21:00 GMT on Wednesday – most economists expect the regulator to make a pause in hiking rates. However, even a hawkish surprise is unlikely to drive NZD/USD above $0.8300. Australia will release a bunch of labor market figures at 1:30 GMT on Thursday. Optimistic forecasts together with the oversold markets point to a forthcoming bullish correction.

Good luck!

Events to watch on Thursday:

NZD: RBNZ policy announcement (21:00 GMT on Wednesday)

AUD: Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, CPI, PPI

EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin, ECB President Draghi Speaks

USD: Unemployment Claims

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