FBS trading plan for Sep. 12
EUR/USD jumped to 1.2950 on worse-than-expected US unemployment claims. The pair retraces higher after a sharp sell-off on the ECB easing announcement, but for now the recovery remains subdued. Fix above the 1.2960/80 resistance area could confirm an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and open the way to 1.3000 and 1.3050. Break below the 1.2850 support will open the way to our next bearish target at 1.2750.The ECB Head Mario Draghi speaks in Milano on Thursday evening, while on Friday don’t miss the euro zone’s Industrial Production data (upbeat forecast, the news could drive the euro higher).
As we expected, GBP/USD extends the recovery from a 9-month low of 1.6060, testing 1.6270 on Thursday. The Scotland-induced panic has slowed down, at least for some time. Our strategy is selling the pound on rallies from the 1.6300 resistance. Break below 1.6060 will open the way to our target at 1.6000. There are no important releases in Britain on Friday, so the cable traders will focus on the US retail sales figures.
USD/JPY came under selling pressure after hitting a new high of 107.15. The long positions on the pair are strongly overstretched, so get ready for a deep correction into the 105.70/105.00 area. Weak US retail sales release on Friday could become a perfect reason covering of the longs. Buying from these levels seems to be a good idea.
“You’re just too good to be true”… AUD/USD soared to 0.9210 on shockingly strong labor market figures in Asian trade, but returned under bearish control very soon. Investors assumed that a 10 times above forecast employment growth figure could be a mistake. Aussie is testing the 0.9100 support to the downside as we write. Next support lies at 0.9050, 0.9000 and 0.8970. Further dynamics of the pair will depend on Chinese releases on Saturday.
Events to watch on Friday
JPY: BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
EUR: Industrial Production, Eurogroup Meetings
USD: Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Import Prices, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
Events to watch on Saturday
EUR: ECOFIN Meetings
CNY: Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment