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Currency Analyst since 2010

Trading plan for Sep. 17

Trade ideas

Tomorrow will be a volatile day as the Federal Reserve meets to set policy. There’s the risk for USD to weaken if the Fed doesn’t sound more hawkish.

EUR/USD is consolidating ahead of big events later this week (FOMC tomorrow and the ECB’s TLTRO on Thursday). The Ichimoku Cloud keeps providing resistance at H4. The pair’s trading range has been getting narrower and narrower. We have a sell stop at $1.2900 targeting $1.2810. If the FOMC meeting activates a short squeeze, we’d put a buy stop at $1.3020 targeting $1.3100. Don’t forget that news trading may be a risky business.

GBP/USD is expected to have a volatile day tomorrow. Unemployment in the UK is expected to contract, while the average earning index – to increase. Meanwhile, claimant count contraction is forecasted to slow down. Don’t miss the BOE meeting minutes – hawkish tone will support the sterling. If GBP/USD overcomes $1.6300, it will test $1.6450.

For AUD/USD we have in mind long from $0.9070 to $0.9110. If Aussie fails to overcome $0.9070 will be selling targeting levels back at $0.9000. USD/CHF may be vulnerable for $0.9260. USD/JPY may correct towards 106.00.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH ON WEDNESDAY

GBP: Unemployment data, MPC meeting minutes (08:30 GMT)

EUR: Final CPI (09:00 GMT)

USD: Core CPI (12:30 GMT), FOMC Statement & Economic Projections (18:00 GMT), FOMC Press Conference (18:00 GMT)

NZD: GDP (22:45 GMT)

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