Currency Analyst since 2010

USD: conclusions from the Fed meeting (video)

By Elizaveta Belugina, FBS

The main event for USD in the past week was the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The central bank reduced QE to $15B a month and aims to end this program of asset purchases in October. Although on the outside the Fed is still cautious about the labor market, it’s making small hawkish adjustments to its policy stance. Janet Yellen stays on track she adopted in Jackson Hole: she admitted that the actions of the Fed will depend on America’s economic performance. USD bulls hope that the economic recovery will allow raising rates earlier.

The FOMC members raised their expectations for the interest rate in the coming years. Have a look at this chart. It’s called ‘the Fed dots’ – each dot shows at which level one of the FOMC members expects to see the key interest rate in future. The Fed seems ready to raise rates next year. Apparently this was enough to make the USD feel good.

The Fed’s message was to watch the US economy. Next week pay attention to the American housing data like existing & new home sales, durable goods orders and final Q2 GDP. There will also be some speeches from the Fed’s officials – Dudley & Kocherlakota. These two are doves, and it would be quite interesting to hear their opinion.

The overall picture for dollar is positive. Note, though, that the risks of correction in USD have increased, especially versus euro and yen.

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