Currency Analyst since 2010

Trading plan for Sep. 25

By Elizaveta Belugina & Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD hit our target at $1.2790 (61.8% Fibo of the 2012-2014 advance). Euro was hit by weaker German Ifo index and the data leaked by French TV that the number of people looking for work fell by 11.1K in August, while analysts expected an increase by 16.5K. A close at/below this level will be a bearish sign. From the technical point the attention should be now at $1.2750. Resistance is at $1.2830, $1.2860 and $1.2900. Tomorrow watch US durable goods data at 12:30 GMT.

Bullish impulse was not strong enough: GBP/USD retraced down from the $1.6400 resistance. The pair broke the support of a short-term triangle (H1) to the downside. Cable met some buying interest around the $1.6350 mark. Break lower will open the way to the $1.63000/6275 area. Great Britain will release CBI realized sales at 10:00 GMT on Thursday. The BOE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech later in the day, at 12:40 GMT.

USD/JPY dips were bought around 108.40. On the daily chart the price is forming to long-shadowed candles that signal a forthcoming bullish reversal. The pair gains ground in the early US trade, testing this week’s resistance to the upside. Next bullish targets lie at 109.00 and 109.45.

AUD/USD once again recoiled down from resistance. Despite the fact that Aussie is oversold on the daily chart, traders keep selling Aussie on rallies. Tomorrow during the Asian session the pair will be moved by the speech of the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens (02:30 GMT) – the outcome of this event is difficult to predict, but the base scenario is AUD-negative. On the downside we target $0.8810. On the upside strong resistance is at $0.8930.


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