Currency Analyst since 2010

Trading plan for Sep. 30

EUR/USD tested levels above $1.2700 after it renewed low in the $1.2660 area. There was a minor recovery as, despite forecasts, German consumer prices didn’t contract, but came unchanged compared with the previous month. There’s scope for a bit more correction up as big traders may take some profits on USD. Resistance is at $1.2740, $1.2790 and $1.2830. Note though that the euro area’s flash inflation data is due at 09:00 GMT. This may turn out to be EUR-negative as it will remind traders of the looming ECB meeting on Thursday. Support is at $1.2640 and $1.2600.

GBP/USD was consolidative in the $1.6250/15 area. The pair breached support line last week, and we’ll view recoveries to $1.6280 as selling opportunities with the first target at $1.6160. There will be a bunch of important data released in the UK tomorrow at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY reached new high at 109.74, but didn’t hold there. Support is at 108.60. Tonight Japan will release industrial production and retail sales data. Further support is at 107.40. Later the pair is still expected to renew maximums at 110.00, 110.30 and 110.60.

The selloff in NZD/USD inspired by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continued. The oversold pair is trying to get higher. There’s resistance at $0.7800 and $0.7970 (bottom of the previous channel). The pair will have some support at $0.7680/7700, but the market will expect more interventions from the RBNZ and remain bearish. Watch ANZ Business Confidence (00:00 GMT) and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (01:45 GMT). For AUD/USD resistance is at $0.8780 and $0.8830.

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