AUD/USD: negative outlook
AUD/USD is trying to retrace some of its huge losses made this week. The pair rose today to levels around $0.9250/60 from yesterday’s low at $0.9163.
Aussie got support as fears about a banking crisis in China eased on speculation the nation’s central bank had quietly added funds to the market. However, AUD will be definitely lacking power as long as US releases positive economic data. Australian currency is also affected by the declines in the value of commodities such as Iron ore.
On H1 we may see that the pair’s trying to base above $0.9160, but even here the indicators aren't bullish enough. The longer term technical picture remains bearish. We don’t think that the downtrend will end anytime soon. Any attempts of Aussie to recover will run into resistance at in the 0.9325/40 area, the $0.9400/35 zone and around $0.9460 (200-hour MA). Support lies at $0.9140 (38.2% of the advance in 2008-2011), $0.9050 and $0.9000.
Chart. H1 AUD/USD