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Trader, analyst and instructor with a 6-year experience

USD/JPY: bears vs. bulls

By Kira Iukhtenko, FBS

USD/JPY hit another 6-year high of 110 yen on October 1, but retraced to 108 later in the week. The strong US Nonfarm payrolls data set off a new wave of USD buying.  

Will the USD/JPY rally extend further? In our view, a broad correction is on the way. The pair rallied by more than 900 pips in the third quarter and met a strong resistance area of 110/110.60. The current USD/JPY trade seems to be similar with the late 2013-rally that was followed by a 50% bearish retracement.  According to this model, the pair could correct down to 105.50 in the coming months.

Strong US data could easily push the price into the 110.60 area. However, the market is too overbought to fix above 110.60. Next support for the pair lies at 108.20, 107.30 and 106.70.

The Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. What’s more, pay attention to the Japan’s current account data and BOJ September meeting minutes on the coming week. 

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