EUR: long-term bank forecasts

As the euro keeps falling, many analysts turned bearish on this currency in the long term – but not all.

Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, the best forecaster the four quarters ended Sept. 30 according to Bloomberg, is predicting that the euro will fall to $1.20 by the end of 2015 as the ECB will have no other choice but to launch as US-style QE as soon as next month. The median forecast of analysts in a Bloomberg survey suggests the decline to $1.23.

BNP Paribas is even more bearish: it forecasts a drop to $1.18 and expects the ECB to introduce QE early next year. ING also thinks that the divergence between Fed and ECB policies will push the euro down to $1.18 by the end of 2015.

However, Westpac is less confident the euro will keep falling as they say that Draghi’s already priced in. The bank predicts the euro will climb more than 4% to $1.31 by mid-2015. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says there’s a 30 percent chance of full QE by mid-2015.

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