USD/JPY down on haven flows

By Kira Iukhtenko

USD/JPY extended the decline from the 110 yen for a second week in a row, hitting the 105 mark on Wednesday. The selloff is driven by two major factors: disappointing US data and lowered risk appetite.

Next week’s economic calendar in Japan is rather light with only the September trade data on Tuesday attracting our attention. Japan's trade deficit narrowed in August, but the scale of the red figures continues to concern policymakers: does the weak yen really help boost exports and fuel economic growth?

Market sentiment turned bearish over the past 2 weeks, but the 105.00 mark could offer some more support. This is 50% retracement from the rally in July – September and the 2013 high. However, the pair is still far from being oversold, so more pessimistic data from the United States could easily push the price to the next bearish target at 104.50 – this is the next Fibonacci retracement level. We are ready to maintain the strategy of selling the pair on rallies at least below 108 yen.

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