Currency Analyst since 2010

Trading plan for Oct. 21

EUR/USD lacked momentum on Monday. Resistance area is at $1.2830/50. Support is at $1.2730, $1.2700 and $1.2680. Longs from $1.2700 are possible, though cautious. Shorts are advised above $1.2900. No data from the euro area tomorrow, only the evening existing home sales in the US, so risk sentiment will matter.

GBP/USD edged above the $1.6100 mark on Monday, hitting fresh 10-day highs as we write. Great Britain is scheduled to release public sector net borrowing data on Tuesday – budget deficit is projected to contract. The data could render more support for the currency. Break above $1.6150 would open the way towards the next short-term targets at $1.6200 and $1.6225. We still expect the $1.6225 mark to cap the upside – this is the long-term trend resistance line and the Oct. 9 high.

USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, but failed to sustain gains and fell back below the 107 mark. The move confirms that the 107.50 area remains strongly resistive for now. It makes sense to reenter shorts on a break below 106.60 with an initial target of 105.00 yen.

AUD/USD is trading in a broad sideways trend with support at $0.8750, $0.8725 and $0.8685. Resistance is at $0.8815/20, $0.8860 and $0.8900. Selling around the latter is a good strategy. Upcoming data releases should bring more volatility: watch the RBA meeting minutes release and Chinese data early on Tuesday.

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