Trading plan for Oct. 22
EUR/USD was rejected by resistance in the $1.2830/50 area. Support is in the $1.2730/15 zone. Tomorrow once again there won’t be important data releases in the euro area. Note though that soon the picture will become more interesting. The market will probably start worrying about the region’s PMIs due on Thursday. Another source of concerns may be the results of the bank stress tests due on Sunday. We still recommend selling on the increases up to $1.2950/3000. The support of the channel lies at $1.2700/$1.2685. The US will release inflation figures on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
GBP/USD failed to sustain growth on Tuesday as UK public deficit came above the forecast. The upside remains limited by the $1.6180/6200 resistance area ahead of the BOE monetary minutes release on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT. We expect the dove-hawk voting to remain unchanged at 7-2. If true, the cable will likely resume the decline with an initial target of $1.6040.
USD/JPY pushed lower in Asia, but met buying interest at 106 yen. To confirm a local low at the 105 mark the markets need to break above 107.30, but the 107 figure remains a strong barrier these days. USD/JPY is a risky trade right now, so we are waiting for clearer signals. Don’t miss the Japanese trade balance on Tuesday.
On Wednesday there will be a lot of news from Canada – retail sales at 12:30 GMT and the Bank of Canada’s meeting & press conference & governor’s speech at 14:00, 15:15 and 19:30 GMT respectively. USD/CAD is at the lower edge of the rising channel. A break below 1.1200 can cause a fall to 1.1100. Divergence at the daily chart points at the possibility of a break lower if the BOC sounds less dovish.