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Gold: long- and medium term analysis

Long-term:

-          Sideways channel since May 2013

-          Weekly chart: MAs in the bearish order

-          Strong support is at $1,180.0 (2 minimums of 2013/100-month simple MA)

-          Resistance: $1,280.0, $1,300 (psychological level/channel resistance), $1,345 (July 2014 high), $1,388.90 (March 2014 high)

-          Long-term target: $1.085 (50% Fibonacci of the advance in 2009-2011)

Medium-term:

-          Daily chart: in the middle of the descending channel, the Ichimoku Cloud is getting narrower

-          Bulls may revisit the upper line of the channel if the price settles above $1,240.50 (June 2014 low).

-          Below $1,240.50 will revisit $1,180.0.

Fundamental factors:

-          Seasonal support in a short-term

-          Watch the US macro statistics: new disappointing data could support demand

-          Long-term environment remains negative: Fed tightening and global disinflationary pressures

 

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