Trading plan for Oct. 24
EUR/USD hit our first target at $1.2625. Better than expected euro zone PMIs supported the pair, but there’s potential for lower euro as the ECB will release the bank stress tests results on Sunday. Resistance is at $1.2700 and $1.2740. Downside targets lie at $1.2605. A break lower will lead the pair to $1.2585 and level in the $1.2500 area. On Friday watch German GfK consumer climate and US new home sales.
GBP/USD continues forming a local high at $1.6185: the pair tested the 1.6000 mark in Europe as UK retail sales figures came out much worse than expected. Retail sales fell by 0.3% in September after growing by 0.4% in August. The major risk event on Friday is the Q3 GDP release. Economic growth is forecasted to slow down from 0.9% in Q2 to 0.7% in Q3.
USD/JPY pushed higher towards the 108.00 mark after the upbeat US jobless claims report. For now this mark acts as a resistance – this is 61.8% Fibonacci from the recent decline. The price broke above the important 107.50/30 resistance, but we would like to see a daily close above this level to confirm the strength of the buyers.
We see a congestion of candles on the daily AUD/USD chart. It resembles a diamond pattern, but trading a breakout in this pair right now is risky.