GBP/USD: pound lacks strength

By Elizaveta Belugina

The bears keep pulling GBP/USD down: the pair fell to the lowest levels since Sep. 2013.

Next week all key news related to GBP will come on Wednesday. Firstly, the UK will release labor market statistics: the unemployment data and the average earnings index (a lower reading of this index will have negative impact on GBP). Secondly, the Bank of England will release Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney will comment on it.

The pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates has decreased as there was a slight slowdown in British economic growth and inflation. This is a bearish factor for GBP. If we have a stream of strong figures from the US, GBP will remain under pressure. To be fair, however, this US data stream will be light until Friday when America will release retail sales and consumer confidence data.

Technical picture: GBP dropped below the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. Support is at 1.5720 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 1.5600. Taking into account divergence on the daily MACD and RSI, the Fibo level above $1.5700 may hold the decline for a while and cause a correction up. Resistance is located at 1.5900 (Cloud’s bottom) and 1.6000 (200-week MA).

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