AUD/USD remains under pressure
AUD/USD was slowly creeping up in the first part of the week, but still found itself capped by resistance at $0.9325 (June 11 low). Aussie is under pressure as there are still risks coming from China and political turmoil in Australia. In addition, AUD is affected by Q2 end flows.
Aussie was limited by the 200-hour MA and the descending Ichimoku Cloud on H4. Today the pair tested levels in the $0.9215 area before stabilizing now around $0.9250. On the weekly chart one may see that AUD holds below $0.9400/9388 (the multi-year reversal area), so the outlook for AUD remain bearish. Support lies at $0.9200 and $0.9140 ahead of $0.9100, $0.9050 and $0.9000.
Analysts at Westpac say that the pair’s fair value lies around $0.9200, but it may fall even lover if the US keeps releasing strong data. The specialists think that AUD/USD may rise on a short squeeze, but not higher than $0.9400/50.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week, on July 2. The RBA is expected to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75%. The market will be closely watching Governor Stevens’ statement for hints at future policy decisions. If Stevens sounds less dovish, oversold Aussie may rally.
Chart. Daily AUD/USD