Trading plan for Nov. 12
US dollar has recovered some ground after the Monday’s pullback: DXY index hovers at 87.80 as we write.
USD/JPY reached 116.10 as dollar bulls have managed to push the pair through resistance. A setback will be now natural: support is at 115.00 and 114.20. Yen is affected by concerns that Prime Minister Above may dissolve the parliament and call a snap election if he decides not to push ahead with the second-leg of the sales tax increase in 2015. A close above 116 will make the pair head towards 118.
GBP/USD is consolidating in a kind of triangle. Britain will release unemployment data at 09:30 GMT. Forecasts are pretty optimistic. Pound may drift to 1.5920 ahead of the release, and if the actual figures live up to the expectations we may see a short squeeze up to 1.5950 and even 1.6000. The markets will be also watching how the Bank of England comments on the slowing inflation (10:30 GMT). Below 1.5920 pound will be vulnerable for a slide to 1.5790.
NZD/USD rose to the 0.7770 area. The RBNZ’s financial stability report is released late on Tuesday. The central bank’s Governor Graeme Wheeler may signal the end of loan to value ration restriction on low-equity loans. As Wheeler has previously said, these restrictions were equivalent to 30-50 basis points of interest rate tightening. As a result, if the restrictions are abandoned, it would have the same effect as the monetary easing, so NZD/USD will slide towards 0.7650. Resistance is at 0.7840 and 0.7878.
AUD/USD is undertaking another attempt to overcome the 0.8650 resistance. The pair was supported by the overall JPY weakness with AUD/JPY being pushed above the 100.00 mark. However, Monday’s peak of 0.8680 remains unbeaten for now. The pair needs to test this level to the upside to get more bullish power. Australia is scheduled to release wage price index tonight at 00:30 GMT.
EUR/USD hovered in a narrow 1.2440/2390 range on Tuesday. The pair remains in a short-term bearish channel with the bearish prospects ahead. This week the economic calendar is rarely light with the euro zone’s industrial production data the key event to watch on Wednesday.