Trading plan for Nov. 13
EUR/USD remains in the narrow 1.2390/2500 range after having hit a 2-year low of 1.2350 on the past week. The near-term picture remains bearish as long as the 1.2500 mark holds. Break higher could open the way for more corrective recovery to 1.2650. Decline below 1.2400 would pave the ground for more aggressive selloff with a medium-term target of 1.2200. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Thursday is empty, but the euro is expected to stay under pressure ahead of the Friday’s data.
The attempts of USD/JPY to rise above 116.10 were so far unsuccessful. The pair has already priced in some of the potential delay in the sales tax hike and as no news about that are expected this week, dollar can allow itself some correction. Support is at 114.70 and 113.80 and deeper down at 102.65. Watch Japanese core machinery orders and the US jobless claims.
GBP/USD sharply fell as the Bank of England cut its growth and inflation forecasts. The recent move up on H4 has turned out to be flag signaling that the downtrend is continuing. We are betting on the pair’s decline to 1.5790 and 1.5730. Resistance is at 1.5905.
AUD/USD is testing the 0.8700 mark to the upside in the US trade. The pair remains in a short-term bullish channel. Next resistance to watch lies at 0.8760/70, while support – at 0.8630 and 0.8580. Volatility will likely increase in Asian session on Thursday: speech of the RBA Assistant Governor Kent will be followed by Chinese industrial production data.