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Currency Analyst since 2010

Trading plan for Nov. 26

The second estimate of the US GDP exceeded expectations: US economy added 3.9% vs. 3.3% expected. However, the currency market wasn’t impressed: during the American session the greenback is trading in the negative territory versus its major peers. In addition, CB consumer confidence index has declined. Tomorrow the US will release a bunch of important economic data. Economists at Citi and BNP Paribas, for example, are skeptical about today’s release and look forward to the information on the personal spending due tomorrow.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.2480 on the news from the US. If the pair fixes above 1.2500, this will open the way to 1.2550 – here lies the trend resistance. There are no important releases in the euro area tomorrow, just German import prices (a decline’s expected).

GBP/USD got support at 1.5650 and returned above 1.5700. Resistance is at 1.5740 – the pair may be forming a rising triangle and a break above this level will lead to an increase to 1.5788 and 1.5850. Support is at 1.5650 and 1.5595. There was nothing interesting at the inflation report hearings. On Wednesday at 09:30 GMT Britain will release the second Q3 GDP estimate and business investment data.

USD/JPY is still trading below Nov. 20 minimum at 118.97. The uptrend has slowed down. On the hourly chart we can see a consolidation in the triangle. Support is located at 117.35 and 116.10.

AUD/USD breached down support at 0.8580 (now it’s a resistance) and fell to a 4-year low at 0.8513. RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that Aussie will likely keep falling following the commodity prices. Support is at 0.8490 and 0.8450.

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