Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/CHF: prospects afher the SNB

Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend traders to go long on USD/CHF. In their view, yesterday’s slump of the pair provoked by the Swiss National Bank, represent a good opportunity to buy the greenback at the lower levels.

In addition, the bank says that it’s not too late to join the EUR/USD bears: “Get much more involved in short positions in EUR/USD. This move today must be seen in the context of a more aggressive European Central Bank. That obviously is going to put the euro under additional selling pressure, and that is going to broad-based.”

Westpac, however, is less confident in franc's future: “In coming weeks CHF will find a new equilibrium though not without exploring some potentially very wide ranges in the interim. Absent any fresh actions by the SNB the combination of ECB sovereign QE and ongoing volatility in RUB/Eastern European markets may well see USD/CHF trade back below 0.80.”

Societe General thinks that USD/CHF will return above the parity (after all, USD outlook is bullish because the Fed is expected to hike rates), but it will happen later this year. CBA points out that the 200-day moving average is located at 0.9286. In their view, American currency can overcome this line.


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