Forex trading plan for Jan. 23

By Elizaveta Belugina

Now that we are past the ECB’s meeting it’s really a relief. The European Central Bank has tried to make its decision balanced: on the one hand, the amount of QE was greater than expected, but, on the other hand, most risks will be loaded on the shoulders of the national central banks and the ECB won’t buy Greek debt.

As the market has generally got the idea of what the ECB’s statement would be like because some of the info was leaked in advance, trading wasn’t that nervous. EUR/USD fell to the new lows in the 1.1450 area. A close below will open the way for new targets at 1.1350 and 1.1200. If we get some of consolidation in the short term, it might be limited by resistance at 1.1650.

On Friday the market will keep digesting the outcome of the ECB’s meeting. Also watch the euro area’s PMI releases at 08-09:00 GMT.

USD/CAD may get some new impulses as Canada will publish retail sales and inflation figures at 13:30 GMT. Negative readings are expected and this will be a bullish factor for USD/CAD. The next target on the upside is 1.25. Other commodity currencies, especially, NZD will also find themselves under pressure in the near future. China will release HSBC Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT – the release will likely have an impact on AUD and NZD.

For GBP/USD watch retail sales release at 09:30 GMT. For now the pair’s still range bound (1.5200/1.5050).

USD/JPY declined on Thursday. Support at 117.15. The pair is vulnerable for 115.85. Resistance is at 117.90.

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